History 26/02/20 What would happen to the world if the US had the atomic bomb in 1945
most Likely the atomic bomb would have been created sooner or later. And most likely, it would happen in the USA. Therefore, it can only go in a limited time frame: if the US did not invent the atomic bomb in 1945 and in the next few years. How could it affect the outcome of world war II and the postwar construction of the world?
“Japan’s democratic Republic”
it is Known that the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was the decisive factor that prompted the Imperial government of Japan to agree to surrender in August 1945. For the visionary leaders of the Japanese ruling circles back in 1943, it became apparent that their country will not be able to win the war. But that their opinion was decisive, it needed some major incident that would show the hopelessness of all war efforts of the Country of the rising sun. This incident was the use of nuclear weapons, even though it has not convinced many in the Japanese military. So, an attempt was made to interfere with the performance of the Mikado on the radio with the rescript of surrender on 15 August 1945. Immediately after that, several thousand Japanese officers committed suicide.
And shortly before this, while by the American managers were quite clear that they will result from the development of the atomic bomb, the US was preparing for a long war. In February 1945, U.S. President Roosevelt was delighted when at the Yalta conference, Stalin reiterated his promise to declare war on Japan within three months after the war in Europe. The joint chiefs of staff (joint chiefs of staff) of the armed forces of the United States has estimated that for the complete victory over Japan will need a landing operation on the Japanese Islands. The duration of the operation was estimated at half a year, and possible losses in her Americans – at least a million killed. The joint chiefs of staff recommended to involve operations in the Japanese Islands by Soviet troops.
a Successful test of the atomic bomb July 16, 1945, gave great hopes in the leadership of the United States. Now the participation of the USSR in the war against Japan came to be regarded as an obstacle to the establishment of US hegemony in East Asia. When at the end of August 1945, Stalin invited the US President Truman “help” in the occupation of Japan, and sent troops for the landing on Hokkaido island, the Truman bluntly rejected such assistance. Stalin did not quarrel with ally and limited in Japan, the employment only of South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands, as was stipulated in previous contracts.
And if the atomic bombs was not Japan surrendered in September 1945, and the allies would have to land on the Japanese Islands, then what? It is unlikely that there would be some kind of alternative to joint amphibious and land operations of all the major allied powers. For example, U.S. joint chiefs of staff was right in the estimate of the duration of the operation, and the war would last until the beginning of 1947. At its end, Soviet troops probably would have taken the Northern part of the Japanese Islands – Hokkaido, and possibly also some part of Honshu island. By analogy with the post-war division of Germany and Korea, we can assume that in the North of Japan it would be made a separate state, oriented toward the Soviet Union and “building socialism” – some kind of “Japanese democracy (or people’s democratic) Republic”.
Third world war would be inevitable?
No atomic bomb, the US would make them compliant with the device of the postwar world. The Soviet Union certainly would be able to realize its own geopolitical goals in Turkey (the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, and the creation of great Armenia) and Iran (accession of Azerbaijan), to create a base on the Mediterranean sea, to unite all of Korea under Communist rule. It is highly likely that in Europe the influence of the USSR after the war would have been much more: the Communists could come to power in France, Italy, Greece.
the Cold war arose due to objective geopolitical contradictions of the Soviet Union and the Anglo-Saxon powers. But she remained “cold” because there was always the fear of the use of enemy nuclear weapons. This fear kept both sides from direct military conflict. But if the atomic bomb did not exist, it is hardly possible to doubt that the contradictions between the USA and the USSR sooner or later would have resulted in direct global armed conflict with conventional weapons. In this case the Soviet Union most likely would have established their control over Western Europe.
the Soviet Union would accept the Marshall plan?
However, the above scenarios do not take into account one important circumstance. Namely, in case of their participation in the eighteen-month war with Japan, the Soviet Union, already ravaged by the great Patriotic war, could weaken so that he was forced to abandon any foreign policy ambitions from any confrontation with the United States. In the world by the end of the Second world war would not have left the two superpowers, but only one – the United States. The USSR would have another year and a half to get help from the USA under lend-lease. And after the war, he would have remained no internal resources for recovery. And the Soviet Union would have to adopt a plan of economic assistance to Europe – the Marshall plan, proposed by the United States in 1947.
Because in the real history – the war ended in 1945, the Soviet Union agreed with the US on major post-war credits, and in 1947 the Soviet leadership seriously considered the question of obtaining assistance under the Marshall plan. We cannot exclude that prolonged participation in the war with Japan could be the factor that would have forced the Soviet leadership to accept the plan. And then the situation post-war the USSR could resemble the situation of the Russian Federation after 1991. The only difference that would preserve the Union.
In history there is no predetermination. Wrote V. O. Klyuchevsky, “the phenomenon of the browhuman dorms are governed by the law of sufficient reason, allow the progress of cases and so. and that way, and the third, that is by accident.” We can’t experiment with history, therefore, in the alternative, unfulfilled history you can always choose more than one option.
Russian Seven
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