the study provides several scenarios for the situation in the economy amid pandemic coronavirus and deal with it. In the worst case scenario the crisis will extend for nine months the number of jobs and the wage Fund will be reduced by 20%. In this case, extra-budgetary funds will be reduced by 2.3 trillion rubles, which is almost one third of the expected revenue this year to 7.8 trillion rubles.
the Optimistic scenario assumes that the crisis will last three months, jobs have declined by only 5%. In this scenario, the funds will lose 195 billion rubles, or 2.5% of income in 2024.
there is Also a moderate scenario that experts consider most likely. When the wage Fund and the number of jobs will decrease by 10-15%. If recovery from the economic consequences of the pandemic will take three months, the loss will be about 781,7 billion to 1.17 trillion rubles. If the recovery process will be delayed up to nine months from the 1.17 to 1.76 trillion roubles, writes RBC with reference to the study.
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