According to analysts, the Russian Federation in 2024 too late to avoid a recession. Gross domestic product (GDP), is expected to decrease by 0.8-3%, as announced by President Vladimir Putin paid hours a week from 30 March to 5 April will only worsen the situation in the economy.
Experts explain that a week of celebrating the New year, the economy loses daily about 180 billion rubles, or about 900 billion over the entire period because of the idle production facilities. However, during the new year holidays, the fall is compensated by increased demand in the consumer sector thanks to the movies, bars, restaurants and shopping centers.
In the current situation, such alignment is not, because the presidential decree on the activities of seven days will stop the de facto throughout the economy. According to the main analyst “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich in the first April week of economic losses from downtime will be 270-320 billion a day, and the total losses will vary in the range from 1.3 to 1.6 trillion for the week.
Economists estimate the decline in industrial production due to non-working weeks in April at 10% per annum. Analysts believe that the week off will deepen the recession in Russia. “The fact that our economy will survive the recession together with the whole world, it is obvious. And the extra non-working week will increase this decline,” — shared his point of view, the Director of analytical Department of “Loco-invest” Cyril Tremasov.
According to the official forecast of the Ministry of economic development of Russia, the country’s GDP in 2024 will grow by 1.9%. However, the Department is already reviewing the assessment, which will be released April 9. Earlier, the Chairman of the accounts chamber Alexey Kudrin said that, while maintaining oil prices at $35 per barrel (below the cut-off laid down in the budget rule), economic growth will be virtually zero. According to 27 March Brent crude on London exchange ICE is trading in the range of $26,5-$Of 27.5 per barrel.
the Slowdown in the Russian economy observed on the background of the spread of a new kind of coronavirus infection in the world and the collapse of oil prices. Quotes collapsed in early March, after Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia from the agreement OPEC+ to reduce oil production. After that, the cost of fossil fuels decreased to minima from the beginning of 2000-ies.
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