Your tax maneuver Moscow started to advisoi tax maneuver Moscow has started to put pressure on Belarus, said Alexander Lukashenko. “Why push, guess with three times,” he added. However, he himself suggested the answer, making it clear that Vladimir Putin had a conversation about incorporation.
“I can’t betray you and dissolve Belarus, even in our brotherly Russia… In negotiations with the President [of Russia], I clearly and unambiguously a year or two ago said that in Belarus can not do nothing,” — said Lukashenko on January 24, speaking to workers of the newsprint plant in Shklov.
the Kremlin’s cool head.
fix the chronology: a year or two ago — that means before the “ultimatum Medvedev.” Former Russian Prime Minister his (or rather Kremlin) condition — continued economic support only if the condition is advanced, as has been said, integration — put, I will remind, in December of 2018.
Thus, the ultimatum was laid out cold heads, carefully prepared and, most likely, is part of a long-term strategy of the Kremlin, which they say Belarusian analysts (Arseniy sivitsky, etc.): if not overcome, then at least stronger to bind the Belarus that didn’t go as Ukraine.
And this strategy Moscow undertook to carry out methodically, insistently. See: although Lukashenko still a year or two ago, like categorically said “no” to the absorption, after this, there was toxic I-31 road map “deepening of integration”. It provides for a single currency and supranational bodies, that is, according to experts, is the bomb under the sovereignty.
Yes, the 31st card is pushed, but The Kremlin keeps it in the sleeve. The expectation is that it will be possible to wear down Belarus, to Deplete the resource of resistance “deeper integration”.
Lukashenka himself has listed a few elements to this pressure. In particular, said that “we close the market for food. Moreover brazen, shameless, for no reason. To incline, to humiliate”. And that the price tag of oil lifted, “including for political reasons, including because of “contractual engagements” batko Lukashenko.”
the New government of Russia is entirely “accountants”
against this background, it is illogical voiced the conviction that the conflict with Russia effectively connected “with the old government of Russia, which President Putin has sent in resignation”. Oh! Indeed, in December last year, the Russian leader at his big press conference, talking about the price of gas for Belarus, was no less harsh and unforgiving than negotiators Medvedev. Said that a Treaty of Alliance 90% is not met. The one with a single currency, a Parliament, a Constitution, etc.
But Putin, apparently, is not going to go anywhere. And Medvedev, in General, not hidden in a closet, got a high position.
the Context
Lukashenko: I do not want to be the last President of Belarus (bn), Belarusian новости24.01.2020 bn: weaken Putin pressure on Lukashenko?Belarusian новости16.01.2020 Info: why Putin and Lukashenko played on the nerves of each other?Info.cz12.01.2020 bn: Lukashenko defeated Russia in hockey, but was defeated in the integration ogrebears новости09.01.2020
So the new Russian government, comfortably sitting in armchairs, ratherth, will also take up the roadmap. Moreover, if earlier the Belarusian side was irritated by “the accountant” Mikhail Babich to the post of the Russian Ambassador, now have to deal with a whole team of “accountants” — hard technocrats, headed by the new Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. He previously headed the Federal tax service, so take the money able, probably, worse than Babich.
Putin in his famous speech of January 15 gave the Russians enormous promise in the field of the social sphere. It will take a lot of money. And it is logical that a new government of technocrats will attempt to further save on Belarus.
Therefore sounded in Shklov hope her head that the important people in Moscow “come to their senses and return to a normal relationship”, it seems idealistic.
“We threw”
And a normal relationship in the view of the Belarusian leader are the relations on concepts. Today, he said: “as for gas, we were thrown — not brought us on an equal price.” They say that the agreement was the sale of “Beltransgaz”, which ended in 2011.
“time Passed, forgotten. Recently, I spoke with the President of Russia. I told him straight: as I remember it,” — said Lukashenko. Yes, but it is recorded whether the agreement documented? I guess not. Otherwise, the gas issue would not have to appeal, as it was recently the 75th anniversary of the great Victory. The fact that the joint decay great-grandfathers in the trenches is unlikely to affect the calculations of the technocrats mishustina.
a Really long time between Minsk and Moscow acted unwritten contract: economic benefits in exchange for the role of a springboard, providing air defense, border security, transit and St. But in recent years the Kremlin has been unilaterally this contract to reconsider, seeking a) to reduce the cost of an ally and b) to force him to make concessions.
Lukashenka is indignant, even (as we learned from an interview to “echo of Moscow”) gave Putin the list of Belarusian services Moscow with their costs. But not the fact that he will take note of such an informal price.
why would Moscow especially to roll back? First, it placed its troops on its own Western border, built a new radar station, thereby weakening the defense’s dependence on Belarus. Second, laid and continues to lay pipes for pumping of oil and gas bypassing Belarus: BPS-1, BPS-2, Nord stream etc. So that transit Belarus weakens.
“By the rules” no longer works
Finally, in the third, in Moscow, apparently, follow the adage “where he go from a submarine?” However, Lukashenko hinted today at a possible “back”, remembering how during one of the former quarrels Belarusians “have started their [Russian] cars to check near Smolensk. Lined up by rail and road to the Kremlin.”
But so to sharpen the story to the Belarusian leader is very risky. Especially before the presidential election. Even less likely that it will block the transit of Russian oil to Europe, or refuse to renew the lease of military facilities in Russia under the Gantsevichi and Vileyka.
By the way, for the rent even Boris Yeltsin once knocked off a fair amount of Minsk’s gas debt. Plus Belarusian military had the opportunity to practice on the Russian grounds (we have such a large scale did not shoot).
these are All part of the very murky, complicated relationshipworking on concepts. Now they no longer work. Willy-nilly it is necessary to go to a transparent market relations on a strict contractual basis, what the critics of the Lukashenka regime has been discussed.
we Need a strategy of how to live in a new reality
meanwhile, the head of state assured clowchan that alternative oil supplies to Belarus is not a bluff.
Indeed, a Norwegian tanker with oil to Novopolotsk “Naftan” has already unloaded in Klaipeda. Conducted the oil negotiations with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and other partners. However, alternative oil more expensive. Yes, and Russian in 2024 will have to buy at world prices.
in other words, in any case, the refining ceases to be the goose that lays the Belarusian budget Golden eggs. Need to restructure the economy, change its structure, to seek new growth drivers.
While from the mouth of the Belarusian leadership we hear a lot of grievances against Russia (which it is for many years so crooked, one-sided integrated), but do not hear a coherent program of Belarus to survive without the usual recharge from the East.
it Seems that Lukashenka really himself yet this is not defined. Meanwhile, usually in April, he delivers a message to the Parliament and the people. Also announced the VI all-Belarusian Assembly.
But even in those events where it is customary to talk about strategy. Life itself poses the question. Because a return to the old model of relations with Moscow will not be, this rhetoric of brotherhood and rotting in the trenches can be disposed of in a landfill. How roughly put Lukashenko in Shklov, “we put cancer on hydrocarbons”. Here is the finale of brotherhood.
to Go to the Empire to the Belarusian leader, as his avid internal opponents obviously do not want. He vividly confirmed in Shklov: “They [the Russian leadership] just miscalculated. They thought (exaggerating, say) will give me the keys to the warehouse, and I’ll go to Russia, too, will be rich, fluffy, white, beautiful… don’t.”
well, then you need to get rid of the illusions of a rent economy and to rebuild the Belarusian model in a new way. But how ready the conservative leader is an open question. on Belarus, said Alexander Lukashenko. “Why push, guess with three times,” he added. However, he himself suggested the answer, making it clear that Vladimir Putin had a conversation about incorporation.
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