the Soft option of quarantine, which now operates in Russia, cannot contain the spread of coronavirus, according to the authors of the open letter. And make no mistake: providing whole weeks off without restriction of movement and social intercourse will lead the country on a sad Italian scenario. Two weeks of “soft quarantine”, which people took as a holiday and an occasion for recreation and travel, made Italy the leader in the number of infected and dead. In Russia it is impossible to make this mistake, and rigid quarantine should last long enough, otherwise the Russian health care system will not sustain.
“hours a week is a bad compromise between correct responses and the preservation of peace,” — said “MK” Professor at Chicago University, HSE, and Konstantin Sonin. He published an open letter from economists on his page in social networks.
However, this failed compromise may be one more unpleasant explanation. In his address to the nation the President first declared a week, and then proposed a new tax on income on deposits. Looks like unplanned weekends are also needed to brighten up another exaction.
the New tax, the assurances of the authorities, we need to help the budget in such a difficult situation. The budget showed a surplus, and has a financial cushion 8 trillion rubles from the national welfare Fund. “I and many other economists think that the “rainy day”, for which have been accumulating reserves has come. If not now, in the time of a sharp economic downturn and falling living standards, to spend the money, when?” — said Konstantin Sonin.
In his letter, the economists called upon to support large-scale business and the population “unconditional transfers” — direct payments to pensioners, the poor, left without work. While the government’s stated amount (300 billion rubles) byare insufficient. The authors of the letter point to the examples of other countries which show that at this stage of the epidemic we need more massive public spending 5-10 trillion. Even poorer countries than Russia, planned measures to support the economy with the volume of 5-10% of GDP, the letter said. For example, Argentina, which for the third year on the verge of default. In this country, as in great Britain, France, Italy, Spain, introduced strict quarantine. Of course, strict isolation of citizens will stop the economy, even more will hit the business. “But at the cost of a catastrophic failure of the economy in the second quarter of the epidemic can be stopped. The fall will begin the recovery and losses at year-end will be moderate,” called optimistic scenario Konstantin Sonin.
But what explanation was given “MK” NES rector Ruben Enikolopov: “it Seems that the government is not aware of the full scope of the problem. The relatively low figures on the number of infected with the coronavirus should not be misleading. We must not repeat the mistakes of Italy and Spain. In order to curb the spread of the virus, will have to impose restrictions that will lead to the fact that GDP will decrease by trillions of rubles. These are not abstract figures, but a very specific lost wages and bankrupt businesses, especially among small businesses. In fact, some citizens will have to bear economic costs to rescue other citizens. The social duty of the state to compensate them for these costs. You have to understand that this is the most serious global economic crisis for the last many decades, so the reaction from the government should be extraordinary and proportionate to the attack.”
see also: Economists called for the adoption in Russia urgent action for coronavirus
