Recall, one of the first of the beginning of the recession heralded the largest investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, prognozirovanie slowing growth in global GDP in 2024, respectively, 1.25% and 0.9%. A more pessimistic scenario presented by the Washington Institute of international Finance (IIF) is 0.4%. According to him, the decline will continue at least until mid-year.
“We officially declare that the US economy fell into recession, joining the rest of the world”, — is spoken in the report prepared by Bank of America. Expected to its analysts, the current crisis will be one of the strongest in history. In the second quarter GDP will collapse by 12% (a record since the Second world war), in the end the number of unemployed will rise to 3.5 million people. Most of all it will affect the entertainment industry, transport, hospitality and the retail trade.
“the growth Forecast for the world economy in 2024 is negative: recession is the same as during the global financial crisis of 2008 or worse” — said the managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva. According to her, all countries should focus on measures related to the prevention of the spread of coronavirus and the strengthening of national health systems.
the losses from the pandemic has already exceeded the damage from the events of 2008 and the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, said in an interview with BBC Secretary General of the Organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) Jose angel Gurriand. According to him, we will receive either a zero or negative economic growth in many countries, including the largest. Moreover, the growth recovery will take a long time, and to resuscitate victims of hundreds of thousands of small and medium enterprises – an unknown quantity of money.
the Economy of Western countries facing the worst since 1929 crisis of a pandemic of mers admitted the Minister of economy and Finance of France Bruno Le Mayor.
“We are moving to a global recession. The necessary measures are taken to curb the spread of the virus, will inevitably lead to this”, says Vice-President of the European Central Bank Vitor constancio.
this kind of revelation, in its tone, in General, coincide with the reactions of the Western colleagues on what is happening, increasingly heard from the lips of the Russian officials. the Crisis does not develop under customary law – it is not debt and is not cyclic, therefore, to predict the outcome is almost impossible, the head of the accounts chamber Alexey Kudrin.
“Even successful solvent companies forced to stop their production, just not to infect or to limit the contamination of their employees. It is quite another cause, the chain of custody violated unpredictable,” says Kudrin.
the Loss of the Russian economy due to the spread of infection COVID-19 will be measured “numbers in the trillions” rubles, said the head of “RUSNANO” Anatoly Chubais.
established in the Russian economy critical situation pointed out Ombudsman under the RF President on protection of entrepreneurs ‘ rights Boris Titov. In his view, such a strike was neither in 1998 nor in 2014. “Desert” — defined the business Ombudsman. The most difficult for Russia test Titov called the fall of oil prices, which leads to decrease of demand for various services. In turn, closed restaurants, hotels, travel companies and other business entities.
In March we received the acute phase of the crisis – says in an interview with “MK” the Director of the Institute of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev. This collapse has already affected the world’s largest economic centers – the U.S., EU, China. Just look at the purchasing managers Index (PMI) in Europe, calculated on the basis of surveys of purchasing managers. He fell to a record low since 1998 31.4 points versus 51.6 points in February.”
According to the formal definition of the IMF, if EKOomy is slowing down to 2.5% is already a recession. Now the growth rate will probably go below the level of minus 1% recorded in 2009. Assessment of Nikolaev, the situation is exacerbated by uncertainty, unpredictability of the pandemic. For business investment – is the worst factor, the most powerful stopper. It is also clear that money, the liquidity of this universal fire, pour fail. The money is needed now to resolve priority tasks of human survival. The state has powers to provide financial assistance (and maintain consumer demand) zhizneobespecheniya industry is mainly the production of food, pharmaceutical industry.
Other areas, especially those that took the first blow of the crisis – tourism, airlines – all of them are yet to be in a coma. How much money there not to pour, the demand is not resuscitated. Even when the pandemic will fade, will take some time for people to return to their previous lifestyle habits. Nobody blows from the tours, many still will be afraid to fly by planes, bitterly sums up Nikolaev.
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