On weekends, the Russian currency went into high spirits. The official dollar exchange rate decreased slightly and was at 77.7 rubles. However, the beginning of a new week, which was declared a day off, brought the “wood” new troubles. At the opening of trading of the Moscow exchange, the dollar rose 2.6%, up to 80.85 of the ruble, and the Euro showed an increase of 1.6% and exceeded 89,1 rubles.
And this is not the end of the fall of the national currency, experts believe that the reasons for optimism in the markets is not observed. Serious concerns inspire oil prices that remain very low. The cost of North sea Brent crude declined to $22.5, and the American grade WTI roll below $20 per barrel that became a record since 2002. In turn, the Russian mark Urals has fallen to $16.2, which is the minimum since 1999.
In the real market occur, and not such miracles. For example, Swiss trader Mercuria Energy Group has signed a deal with a negative price to the minus 19 cents, just to get rid of overflowing the oil storage of raw materials. According to ESAI Energy analyst Elizabeth Murphy, this structure does not have private access to the sea transshipment bases, so its raw materials just do not is buyers. The price of fuel by other companies, which store to fill up quickly due to lack of demand, is also shortly expected to become negative.
In the future, the situation risks to worsen. The demand for “black gold” due to the spread of coronavirus in the world decreased by 20-25%. At the same time, stocks of the world storages of raw materials, according to various estimates, there were only 2-4 months, and not all manufacturers have access to oil storage facilities.
As suggested by a senior analyst “BCS Premier” Sergei Suverov, there is reason to believe that April will be a “black” month for “black gold”. “Industry experts suggest a further drop in energy demand. There are forecasts about the decrease in the inteRees oil another 20%,” warns the expert.
According to him, currently, the global energy sector faced a record surplus production of hydrocarbons. Since April 1, when the operation of the Treaty in the framework of OPEC+, its former members, mainly Saudi Arabia, will significantly increase the extraction of raw materials that will cause additional impact on quotations. As a result, not only of WTI drops below $20 per barrel, but Brent, which has always been much more expensive.
Riyadh says that does not lead with Russia negotiations about the stabilization of the oil market. However, except as the agreement on the conclusion of a new Memorandum involving reductions in production capacity, other methods of struggle with excess raw materials in storage and the rising cost of fuel, the producing countries does not exist. At this time, the agreement can connect and Americans that low oil prices do not allow to continue the shale revolution and to push the traditional producers. Moreover, according to American sources, in talks to join small private mining companies USA, without seeking in this case, the opinion of official Washington.
For the Russian currency even current oil prices paint a very unpleasant prospect. According to suverova, quarantine week, which sent the Russians did not provide vacation “wooden”. The Ministry of Finance by increasing the currency interventions will try to neutralize the reaction to the drop in oil prices, but to play it will not. Therefore, in the near future the dollar can overcome the next psychological threshold of 85 rubles.
