During his address to the nation, the President proposed to introduce a break on consumer and mortgage loans in case of falling of incomes of physical persons more than 30%. Now this initiative takes the form of instructions from the government. But are banks ready to support borrowers who are unable to fulfill obligations because of the pandemic and who will pay for it?
According to the Bank, amount of arrears of Russians to banks in early 2024, before any of the pandemic has reached 16 trillion rubles, which was a historical record. However, after the epidemic of debts of the population on loans will grow significantly, believe financial experts.
Investment Manager “Opening Broker” Timur Nigmatullin stressed that the measure proposed by the President are rational, but doubt that it will bring real help to individuals and individual entrepreneurs. “Small businesses cannot be sustained in this way. They don’t always work even take out a Bank loan,” he says.
he is convinced that the best way to help is to use the example of the US or the UK. Recall the payoff to American taxpayers in the fight against the coronavirus of $1 thousand per adult $ 500 per child. That is, we are talking about a direct “hand” of the money. In turn, the people receiving these funds will be spent in the companies belonging to small entrepreneurs. So, the economy will continue to work. “In the UK was given gratis every small company 20 thousand pounds. This will allow employers to pay off debt and to pay employees wages — continues to Nigmatullin. — It can be called available state for the preservation of infrastructure in a pandemic”. The analyst believes that the problem is not the virus, but the fact that politicians take the decision to impose quarantine, causing damage to the business that can’t do this without compensation from the state.
meanwhile, more than half of the Russian banking system is state-run banks. Experts do not doubt that if the law on tax holidays is passed, the government will somehow take care of these expenses. What about private banks? “If banks, state-owned, will receive less income, the Finance Ministry will not receive dividends. Undoubtedly, this initiative will have a severe impact on financial institutions”, — said Timur Nigmatullin.
the Possible risks may relieve the Bank of Russia by providing banks with additional funding: organizations will be able to attract their capital funds of the Central Bank at a low interest rate. “Such a measure could lead to a surge of inflation, as it was in 1990-h years, — the analyst believes. — However, now the country has fallen dramatically, consumer demand and acceptance could work without provoking the acceleration of inflation”.
