metaphors are never too accurate. But perhaps serves to imagine in this case a small boat and failed, in the middle of the sea, quite far from the coast, in a peaceful morning, warm, light-blue, transparent. It feels good. Especially, if one remembers that a few hours ago, the same boat had to face a perfect storm: hurricane-force winds, raging sea, the death at hand. Then, the sunny morning is a good time to relax, ease up, enjoy the peace of a beautiful day. And, of course, is not the time to think about the future. Will come.
No one can handle that.
Argentina has gone through one last year tremendous. In early April 2018 the major investment funds of the world, motivated by the crisis of Turkish and inconsistencies are local, they decided to flee the country. They disarmed their positions in pesos. They sold everything, bought dollars, and they were. That generated that all over the world in Argentina to buy dollars. The currency was devalued violently: the dollar was worth 20 and it happened, in a blink of an eye, worth 45. And that leap is moved to prices. There is to be a genius to anticipate the effects: rose violently poverty, lowered the consumption, fell brutally to the product. All this had its political effects: the image of the president Macri rolled on the ground.
The storm started in April 2018 and found shelter only in April 2019, on the date which is already known as 29A. That day, the International Monetary Fund announced that, there would be a new run against the argentine peso, the Government could sell the dollars that I would like to slow it down. It is an episode worthy of study about how things work.
In the worst of the storm, appeared the IMF and awarded to the Argentine Macri the largest loan in its history. But he did so with one condition: that you do not sell the dollars provided to curb the flight of capital. Only serve to cover the shortfall , so that Argentina would not have to resort to the markets to ask for debt.
Something of reason was that prohibition. Does it have to be the Monetary Fund who provide money for speculators to go when you want with him? Do not pull silver? But there was a political problem. If you are not allowed to use the money, the Government would lose the elections. That’s why, when in April of this year, it seemed to be breaking out a new run on the peso, the Monetary Fund, violated all its principles and announced that it would allow the use of reserves. Macri is a reliable ally of the united States in the region. Decided not to let it fall to the cost that out.
And then became calm. Now that the Government had no money to stop a run, investors stopped running. They were going to lose a lot of money.
The storm moved away.
The sky cleared.
And the sun came out again.
In two and a half months, the weather changed in a radical way. All indicators are negative became positive: consumer confidence, confidence in the Government, the image of the president. Inflation, still high, began to slow: 6% monthly, fell to 2.5. Thanks to the monumental devaluation, Argentina has returned to sell the world more of what we purchase. And, for the first time in six months, Macri now has a chance to be re-elected. If this occurs, one of the possible explanations is that the IMF saved Macri. Not the only one: it is always advisable to be wary of the simplifications.
On the deck of the boat there is a memory certainly frightening of the recent storm. In addition, there were victims that they are not forgotten. But the sea looks serene, reflected the rays of the sun. It is true that with the sea you never know. So soon, the particular each day, you’re still buying u.s. dollars. The Government keeps interest rates high for investors to earn a lot of money if kept in pesos. That stifles the economy. And, in addition, some time will have to pay. Prices rise less but well above the dollar. And, each time that happened, sooner or later the dollar was on par to what gross.
that is, that, at any time, perhaps after the November elections, will move the waves, and the barge will begin to shake again. Or, at least, there is a high probability of that to happen. If one looks at the recent history of argentina, it would be a very exotic that does not happen.
But you better not think about that now.
This time it will be, definitely, different.
And if anyone has any doubt, open a beer, pull up in the hammock and look out to the horizon.
isn’t it a morning very nice?
