Each week, Kiko Llaneras writes about politics with data and an analytical gaze. Sign up here to receive the newsletter in your email.
1. Vox is the party that more grows. The survey of 40dB. on September stood below 9% in votes, but now would be around 14%. The party has its voters convinced (the 85% be repeated), attracts of other parties (17% of the PP and 14% of Citizens) and is the second force among those who did not vote the last time.
in Addition, the supporters of Vox are the only ones that are equally mobilised in April. The rest of the electorate seems in general less enabled: then the 70% of people said they would vote “safely”, but now only 67% is declared as decided.
This poll is not the only one who sees it grow to match Santiago Abascal. The average number of surveys had already seen its growth in the last few weeks, and especially in the last month. It is a trend that’s seen almost all of the surveys, although there are two reasons to not be sure their good results: the previous April (when Vox fell below forecasts) and the newness of the party (which complicates always the predictions).
2. The leaking sink to Citizens. The party has only a 40% of voters willing to repeat, but that is not the worst: the most worrying thing for Albert Rivera is that a third plan to vote for another force. 14% say they will vote to Vox, the 12% for the PP and 5% to the PSOE. It is possible that the results of Citizens end up being better than say the survey —which sometimes exaggerate trends— but it is more than likely that the party lost many votes and the most seats.
3. Forming a government could be equally or more complicated. The survey of 40dB. does not move even a millimeter the balance between the blocks of the left (PSOE, podemos and Most Country) and right (PP, Citizens and Vox). The survey gives you four tenths more to the left (44%) on their result of April, and leaves to the right where it was (43,2%). In the number of seats that would result in a situation the mind-bending: the right is far from add; PSOE and the Citizens do not reach; and the alternative would be a majority of left-wing and nationalist, who need the support of CKD, probably, or an agreement between PSOE and PP.
And what do citizens think of these combinations? Seem to be more permissive than its leaders. In Vox, we Can, and More Country there is no division: the first want a right wing government and the second one of the left with them inside. But the voters of the PP, Citizens, and the PSOE was split between different options of Government. 76% of voters of the PP they want to run with Vox and Citizens, while another 18% would prefer to support the PSOE. Citizens are divided between those who want to govern with the right (43%) and those who preferred to associate with the PSOE (43%). And something similar happens to the voters of Pedro Sánchez: the half that wants to make a pact with the left and the nationalists, the 40% with Citizens and only 12% preferred to rely on the PP.
4. Catalonia may drive Vox. The concern more divisive between the Spanish is “the conflict Catalan”. The data are clear. The 80% of voters of the PP, Citizens, or Vox believe that the conflict is “fairly or very important to vote,” while only view like half of the voters of the PSOE or we Can. This is relevant considering in the last week because this, again, suggests that, if Catalonia regains prominence, the benefit would be Vox and the PP.
Vox, in particular, has another point to his favor. The party is, for many voters of other formations, the force more capable of facing the conflict Catalan”. So believe the 97% of his voters, but also the 15% of Citizens, 30% of the PP and up to 4% of we Can and the 8% for the PSOE.
5. A warning: it is likely that the surveys do worse than in April. Among other reasons, so simple regression to the mean. The surveys of April were the most accurate that can be remembered in Spain and what is common is that exceptional results will follow a normal one. That is why it is important to remember what is the accuracy we can expect from the polls and not rely on their accuracy: the surveys tend to go wrong in a few points with every match and it is not uncommon in the diversion of three or four at least one. It is difficult to predict with what.
Each week, Kiko Llaneras writes about politics with data and an analytical gaze. Sign up here to receive the newsletter in your email.
