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associate Professor of the Department “Regulation of financial institutions”, faculty of Finance and banking, Ranepa Yury Tverdohleb sees no extraordinary factors which could radically affect the change rate of the ruble in February, the website “Arguments and facts”.
“February is expected to be fairly quiet. And internal factors that we do have, are also quite famous. We see that any serious requests for the currency are expected,” – said the expert.
According to Tverdohleb, even the factor associated with the coronavirus, has not led to sharp fluctuations or securities or currencies.
a Member of the General Council of the public organization “Business Russia” Pavel Gagarin believes that in February, the exchange rate will depend on the reaction of the business community on the information supplied about the coronavirus.
If the local authorities and international organizations will be able to stop the spread of infection will stop and the weakening of the ruble, it will not work – the ruble will continue to fall.
“Investors and speculators who play in the financial markets, fear of declining demand for fuel in China and the slowdown of the world economy. This forces them to leave from risky assets, which include currencies and government bonds of developing countries (in this case, the ruble and bonds of Federal loans),” he explained.
the Expert noted that in periods of instability the main goal is not to make money, and save, and are better suited gold, the dollar and long term us government bonds. An additional source of pressure on the ruble is buying up euros and dollars to replenish the Treasury reserves.
in addition, a strong ruble is not very interested in our economy, export-oriented. “Today the price of oil in rubles rather low for oil, they are also major donors of the Federal budget. They need a slight weakening of the ruble,” – said Gagarin.
the President of the Russian-Asian Union of Industrialists and entrepreneurs Vitaly Mankevich believes that in February the dollar exchange rate will be about 63 rubles. This is due to uncertainty in the oil market, that is likely reduction in demand due to the extension of holidays in China and the mild winter in Europe.
Also, the Central Bank may reduce its key interest rate. The attractiveness of Russian assets for foreign investors will be reduced, there will be an outflow of funds from our foreign exchange market. There is the possibility of tightening sanctions from the United States.
associate Professor of Department of Financial markets and banks, Financial University, candidate of economic Sciences Svetlana Zubkova believes that in February the national currency is unlikely to change significantly.
“most Likely, he will remain at the level of 62.5–63 rubles per dollar. This is due, firstly, with the decision of the US Federal reserve not to touch the rates,” she said, adding that in the near future expected events, capable to change the dollar.
the Arrival of a new government, the growth of investments and implementation of reciprocal can increase the interest of foreign investors in securities that will facilitate the inflow of foreign currency and, consequently, appreciation of the ruble.
however, the slowdown in China’s GDP can reduce energy prices and consequently, the depreciation of the ruble.
Head of customer service Department of Bank of Moscow Sergey Farberow believes that the easing of monetary policy, the Central Bank has a positive effect on the ruble, and the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran will reduce the volume of supply of oil from far East countries, which will increase the cost of the barrel.
the purchase of currency by the Ministry of Finance remains a factor in the weakening of the ruble. From 15 January to 6 February, the Ministry of Finance will spend almost 310 billion rubles for the purchase of foreign currency. This one and a half times more than the end of 2019. Another negative factor is the spread of coronavirus.
Venture investor Egor Globenko believes that in 2019, the national currency has exceeded all forecasts. “But TakaI trend cannot continue indefinitely. In February, the ruble will push the decline in oil prices, and the purchase of foreign currency by the Finance Ministry,” he said.
According to Lapenko, most likely a modest decrease of the national currency, to 65-67 rubles per dollar.
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