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Macri and Fernandez staged the transition of argentina peronism argentine, forced to negotiate in the Congress
After the political upheaval, the overturning of economic. The future government of Alberto Fernandez wants to handle Argentina in a very different way, and the Central Bank begins to adapt: the Tuesday announced that starting November 1, will sponsor a fall of the interest rates and put an end to the high remuneration of the Letters of Liquidity (Leliq) with which they tried to contain both the inflation and the depreciation of the peso. The new strategy aims to boost domestic consumption and credit, but can shoot even more the rise of prices. “They come very difficult years,” said the president-elect.
Fernández announced in Tucumán province, where he attended the inauguration of governor Juan Manzur, who fight against hunger and in favor of public education, public health, and the rights of workers. “We need to reclaim the dignity,” he said. He added that Argentina would be “a country governed by a president and 24 governors” and that it would build “an authentic Argentine federal”. Also anticipated that batallaría in favor of the legalization of abortion, one of its main opponents is precisely the governor of Tucumán, Manzoor, representative of the peronists more conservative and opaque.
it Was his first formal speech after the victory in the elections. Alberto Fernandez emphasized that he would assume the presidency of Argentina “with many problems beyond the debt” and that the coming years would be “very difficult”. The trip to Tucumán was a wink of complicity to the governors peronists, a force, in general, moderate and pragmatic manner with which it aspires to compensate for the pressures of the kirchnerismo represented by the former president and today vice-president-elect, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, and by the activism and ideological organization, The Campora, founded by maximo Kirchner, one of whose leading figures is the governor-elect of Buenos Aires, Axel Kiciloff.
The argentine recession it will soon be two years. It only uses 60% of the industrial capacity, the consumption does not cease to decrease and the official unemployment rate, at 10.5%, conceals a large amount of underemployment. 35% of argentines live in poverty. The new government, which will assume the 10 of December, you need a shock that you reactivate the economic activity. Fernandez aims to accomplish this by a pathway that remained blinded during the tenure of Mauricio Macri: a low interest rate that enables the company to return to have of bank loan accessible.
During the campaign, Fernandez has always had the same answer when asked as to what funds would be available to revive economic growth: what we will save in interests of the Leliq, he said. Right now, these letters provide to the banks a return of 68% annually with operations to seven days. Were the instrument with which the macrismo, following the instructions of the International Monetary Fund, draining the market of weights (with the goal of curbing inflation) and prevented the money from the banks is overturned on buying dollars, with the consequent depreciation of the peso.
That policy did not work. Inflation year-on-year is 53.5 per cent and the peso has suffered devaluations giant, while bank interest rates in excess of 70% make inaccessible the credit. With the “supercepo” applied from the Monday, that prevents to buy more than 200 dollars a month and had been deleted in the practice of the foreign exchange market, the official quotation remains frozen in a change of close to 60 pesos per dollar (another thing is the black market or “blue”) and need not continue to burn reserves in a battle in vain.
The idea of Fernandez is based on the fact that real interest rates fall below inflation, and entering negative territory, discouraging savings and stimulating consumption. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner used implement a similar policy in his second term. The basic thesis is that the inflation has been caused by currency devaluations, not by printing pesos, and that the risk of hyperinflation is very low. In fact, the real inflation of the last stage, the team did not reach the 30%, while with Mauricio Macri, who rose up to the clouds, the interests and slowed the issuance of currency, has reached almost the double.
