On Wednesday, the EU heads of state and government will meet again in Brussels. The last summit in Salzburg is just four weeks. Results at the time: zero. The European Union is in the biggest crisis since its Foundation. “The stability of the EU at risk,” says the Europe expert at the centre for European economic research (ZEW) in Mannheim, Friedrich Heinemann.
In the European capital is aware of that: In the Brussels offices of the Europe to be prepared for elections in may 2019 meticulously, and the legal machinery that rattles and more. Professor Heine’s diagnosis is grim: “more and more people ask themselves: Is the EU still a community? Is it worth it to continue? Are my interests in this Union?“
The Bonn Neuhistoriker Daniel Geppert says: “I believe that we have made in any case, too long almost exclusively thoughts about Integration and too little about disintegration.” Geppert says that the EU will “change” in one direction “which we have not previously deemed desirable or wrong”. Can fail, the European Union, for example? Which are the five biggest problems of the EU in the sum, you can destroy the Union.
Brexit
The Brexit Deal is acutely on the Cant, as London and Brussels can’t agree on the Divorce terms. The biggest point of contention is that, currently, as from the year 2024 border controls between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland can be avoided. A No Deal would be the worst among all the already negative scenarios. Although he is not said to be true of the Europeans as hard as the British, would mean a collapse of the talks, a shock to the European economic area and outside the EU, as a further sign of the European Malaise understood.
But then, if in the coming weeks, a formal compromise for the exit would be found, would be unsolved a lot of problems between Brussels and London for many years. This creates uncertainty and distrust. The decades-long intense relationship between the island and the continent is cooling, in any case, noticeable.
London’s military strength, its traditional ties to powers such as the USA or India and the Expertise of British diplomats and intelligence services will miss the EU soon. Germany and the Nordic countries also lost an Ally in the fight against Brussels ‘ redistribution plans and for a free market economy. Overall, the Brexit weaken the EU significantly.
Italy
The major rating agencies, see Italian government bonds just two notches above junk level – a further devaluation of at least one stage is likely to follow soon. The risk premium between Italian and German bonds continues to rise.
The topic will play an important role in this EU-summit. EU diplomats are extremely nervous about this development. From the Brussels point of view completely unpredictable government in Rome puts the fact that their country is “too big to fail” – and the EU-States and the European Central Bank (ECB), Italy would save in the end.
With the new “budget of the people”, as the government’s partner of Five-star-called movement, deported to Rome, the debt reduction of 133 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) significantly. In Italy the state is to blame on 2.3 trillion Euro, 23 percent of the total Euro government debt. For weeks the mood between partners in the EU and Italy is a heated behind-the-Scenes.
economic expert Heinemann: “Italy is super dangerous for the EU. Italy is fundamentally at risk broke. Add to that the potential growth (long-term change in the GDP; note. the editors) is about zero.“ The only ray of light: Until the end of 2019, only 13 per cent of the Italian state bonds extended.
Nevertheless, Italy can trigger an economic, banking and currency crisis in Europe, which jeopardize citizens ‘ trust in the EU and lead to significant loss of Income. At the same time, the Europeans could be forced to rescue operations, which exceed all that has gone Before.
Migration
Correct is: The number of migrants coming to Europe has decreased significantly. So until the middle of September 21.000 boat refugees were registered in Italy, approximately 34,000 immigrants arrived yet in Greece. To Germany only 400 asylum-seekers arrive daily at the end of, to Austria, there are only 40. But how sustainable is that? What happens when the militias in Libya, or trafficking in Morocco to strengthen the people-smuggling because he is financially the most lucrative?
The EU is not prepared for it. The border is incomplete, and nobody knows, whether there will be the planned border guard force of 10,000 men in two years. High-flown plans at the EU summit in June, “controlled asylum centres” in European countries to set up new camp (the”Landing platforms”) in North Africa, have proved to be unrealistic.
Unsolved question of the Distribution. It has become a mushroom within the EU. Many Central and Eastern European member States refuse to migrants and to accept automatic distribution rates.
populism
The hopes were premature: In Brussels, it was believed, after the electoral victory of Emmanuel Macron in the year 2017, the populist wave would be contained in Europe. It turned out differently. In almost all EU countries, nationalist parties shoot authoritarian-from the ground and driving the governments before him. In some countries, such as Italy, Hungary or Poland, even the Prime Minister. The goal of this right-wing populists in a “Europe of Nations”, in the it is all about selfish interests and not on European goals.
Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister, Matteo Salvini wants to start in the new EU Parliament, even a “Lega of the Legas”. The new group should belong to important parties such as the Polish PiS, or the Hungarian Fidesz. This new reservoir of right-wing populists to second-strongest group in the European Parliament. The chances of this happening are not bad. Northern League chief Salvini says, the enemies of Europe are not the nationalists in the member States, but “those who are entrenched in the bunkers of Brussels”.
Unexplained enlargement question
in 2003, had promised the EU to the six countries of the Western Balkans accession to the EU. These States now pressure. You have arguments in: Russia, China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are increasingly present in the Region. For the Europeans it is there also to geo-strategic interests and stability at the external borders.
This is for a quick accession. On the other hand, many EU citizens are against it: they fear the Import of crime, corruption, and cheap labour, but also new billion burden for the European budget. The EU should expand in the coming years, is likely to decrease the trust in the EU, many citizens and populism to promote.
