At the moment it seems that the 1st wave of the coronavirus is decaying. Over the next few days, the experts will be curious to see whether the relaxation of the restrictions will not lead to an increase in the number of infections again.
Or were the loosening done too quickly? The experts are already warning of a second wave of the corona virus, which should follow in autumn at the latest.
Both politicians and doctors are looking for the answer to an important question: How can you keep the contagious virus under control? According to the experts, around 60 to 70 percent of the population would first have to become infected in order for the pandemic to “naturally end”. The first wave in Germany has so far only affected 173 infected people per 100,000 inhabitants. Even if one assumes a certain number of unreported cases, the required amount of 60,000 – 70,000 infected per 100,000 inhabitants is far from being reached and it would probably take years if the measures of the contact ban continue to be applied.
It is therefore far more realistic that the pandemic will be finally ended with the development of a vaccine. However, it is not yet possible to calculate when a vaccine will be available in billions of times. Experts consider it unrealistic that a vaccine will be available in autumn this year. The forecast for spring 2024 appears far more likely. However, the time factor plays an important role in the fight against the corona virus. Because already in autumn the doctors expect a second wave of the corona virus.
In the United States in particular, there is serious concern. After all, the country is already badly affected by the 1st wave. That is why Robert Redfield, head of the “Centers for Disease Control and Prevention”, an important agency of the US Department of Health, warns of the danger of a massive second wave in autumn 2024. Should a second wave of the coronavirus coincide with the seasonal flu wave
some health systems could face an even greater burden than before. “If this virus behaves like other viruses, we could see a resurgence in the fall,” Dr. Patrice Harris, director of the American Medical Association Safe ”. A second wave of Covid-19 infections could possibly occur even earlier if the US states decide to relax the measures now taken too early.
In Germany, too, the RKI experts are observing the easing measures that have now been decided. Despite the easing, a return to normalcy is not yet appropriate. RKI Vice President Lars Schaade is concerned that many people could still get infected. “If the number of cases skyrockets, the health system can still be overloaded very quickly,” says Schaade. The RKI therefore appealed to continue to adhere to the recommendations. Virologist Christian Drosten also said recently that the current figures on the infection process could be deceptive. It is therefore absolutely essential to continue to focus on limiting social contacts as much as possible.
