But independent economists their calculations suggest, and they are not optimistic. For example, the Director of the European school of business and Finance (ESBF) Oleg Filippov is proposed to identify the damages according to the following formula: divide the GDP of Russia (113 trillion) by the number of days in a year, and then multiplied by seven. The result is a minus of 2.1 trillion rubles (1.7% of annual GDP). Chief analyst “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich draws Parallels with the long new year holidays, during which the Russian economy loses about 180 billion per day. But in today’s reality, the daily loss to the economy can be 270-320 billion a day, or 1.3–1.6 trillion rubles in the week — that is about 1.3–1.5% of GDP, estimated by the expert.
the same level of weekly losses — around 1.5% of GDP — named in conversation with “MK” our resident expert, doctor of Economics Igor Nikolaev. The question arises: is it much or little? At first glance it seems that the little figure is clearly not is staggering. But it depends what to compare. For example, in a recent correspondence the summit of “Big twenty” Vladimir Putin said that the consequences of the struggle with the crisis caused by a coronavirus, Russia allocates an amount equal to 1.2% of GDP. It turns out, this week, our economy will lose more than you plan overall to spend on the fight against the pandemic.
Or here’s another comparison. In a prosperous, zocoronline times, the Ministry had planned the GDP growth of the country by the end of 2024 1.9%. It turns out that for the first days of April this planned growth is actually zero. Consequently, outside of these weeks, the country “emerges” in the recession.
Authorities still this reality is not recognized. First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov recently expressed confidence that the Russian economy not threatened with a recession. But independent experts point to the numerous factors already confirming the country’s slide into recession. For example, the industrial production due to non-working weeks will be reduced in April 10% yoy, while consumption by 5%, warns chief economist “alpha Bank” Natalia Orlova. And chief economist “Expert RA” Anton tabah estimate that declared “holidays” can cost private business to 700 billion rubles, which the government is not going to compensate.
But it wasn’t enough of a coronavirus, so there are the factors of rapid drop in oil prices, a massive collapse of world markets, the total reduction in demand for raw materials. They all have to merge into a “perfect storm” to describe which kind word “recession” may not be enough. It may well go about a full-fledged global financial and economic crisis, which hit Russia… Already there are predictions of various think tanks about the fact that by the end of 2024 the Russian economy will leave in a minus on 1,5–3 %. And Bloomberg experts talk about the impending failure of 5-10% of GDP.
So even if optimistic to assume that the authorities will be able to quickly — in a matter of weeks to cope with the epidemic, the economy will not save it: it is doomed to a long and painful fall. Meanwhile, behind all these boring share of GDP are hidden quite specific and vital for each of us things: jobs, wages, income, career prospects…
Perhaps someone will read these notes with indignation and say: “what do the author says? At stake are the lives and health of people — whether it is appropriate to consider any monetary loss?” I am sure that is not just appropriate to do it necessary and desirable to hear that on this occasion the official and honest assessment of at least the first persons of the Ministry of Finance and economic development.
not in order to save on some measures. God forbid! The author fully endorses the thesis of Fyodor Mikhailovich about the tears of a child. But the public needs to understand what price it pays for its steps — in the truest sense: in rubles and dollars. To be prepared for a particular development. God willing, a virus will pick up a few — maybe thousands. Live well on under ecoeconomic recession and even full-fledged crisis, will have 140 million — all of us without exception.
